UPDATED SATURDAY AM: At a time when IP is a Holy Gail at the box office, and mass appealing auteur-driven fare a consistent gamble, kudos for Sony in their support and passion to re-energize a dormant cult British zombie franchise in 28 Years Later in Danny Boyle’s 28 Years Later and Disney/Pixar in their relentless attempts to try and breakthrough with expensive original fare, that being the $150M Elio.
However, like all things at the box office, nuance remains the greatest enemy. Nuance in a marketing campaign, and nuance in a movie itself.
Currently, Sony’s 28 Years Later is holding it together with a B CinemaScore, heading toward a $30M-$31M opening in second place. Tonight will determine whether the Danny Boyle directed movie lives north of $30M. The CinemaScore, on the higher end for horror movies, is a sigh of relief (let’s hope it is) after a brutal 66% Rotten Tomatoes score and a lower end of the definite recommend PostTrak scale of 52%. Currently with its net $60M production cost, the slide rule P&A economics for the zombie revamp, which Sony won at auction along with two other installments, is alright.
The aorta of this movie’s campaign rested on that intensely cut first trailer (which I hear is winning awards) from December which racked up the second-best views ever for a horror spot at 60.2M global views in its first 24 hours, ranking behind It: Chapter Two‘s 96M. ‘Did the cheat work?’ is the question we’ll ask all weekend, meaning, did the sell that this was a nail-biting movie yield more box office bucks than expected? While critics love the movie, and apparently core fans as well, some horror audiences are finding 28 Years Later to be significantly slower than expected. Hence, the hard exits.
The positive here is that even at $28M+, it’s one of the better openings for a horror movie, north of Smile ($22.6M), Longlegs ($22.4M) and possibly matching Scream ($30M). As we always said, Final Destination: Bloodlines was always younger skewing with 39% under 25 versus 25% here, hence that redo’s bigger grosses, but it also delivered more scares than the British walking dead. Also, the lack of Imax here on 28 Years Later, particularly with a movie from a guy like Boyle, is making a difference at the till. PLFs though are repping 24% of business. Best ticket sales are in the East, West and South Central with AMC Burbank the highest grossing venue currently at close to $66k. Diversity demos are 46% Caucasian, 25% Latino and Hispanic, 12% Black, and 10% Asian American. Men over 25 at 49% remain the pic’s biggest audience.
Disney/Pixar
We can’t deny that Disney/Pixar’s Elio at $22M+ is the lowest opening for a Pixar movie in third, lower than the first Pixar feature, 1995’s Toy Story at $29.1M, and also lower than 2023’s Elemental ($29.6M). This despite excellent audience exits with an A overall CinemaScore and A+ for the under 25 bunch. True, true, the new paradigm of success for a Disney animated property lies in its endgame viewership on Disney+, but if you don’t create a big enough boom at the start, how do you expect word of mouth to downstream? While we know Pixar can make an emotional movie, evident in the exits here, something is holding audiences back from running to theater, so evident in the marketing: A boy with a patch and goofy aliens just isn’t cutting it.
For a while, the new ‘dog ate my homework’ excuse for studios is that original fare is a challenge to open. But you need, original fare to create franchises. What’s the solution for Pixar? Better development meetings, duh. You can’t tell me that the old glory opening B.O. days of Pixar can’t be recaptured, i.e. Inside Out ($90.4M), The Incredibles ($70.4M), Finding Nemo ($70.2M) Brave ($66.3M) and Wall-E ($63M)? Sure, it’s easier said than done to pull off a Pixar hit; a delicate balance between simplicity, adult heartfelt sophistication, hysterical humor, relatable characters, awestruck animation (Wall-E in that beautiful pile of space junk) and let’s not forget cinema homages (Brave being a female Braveheart, Wall-E with nods to THX-1138 and other sci-fi). Elio isn’t a bad movie, but the conceit of a boy obsessed with space and then meeting a bunch of slobbering aliens isn’t spinning turnstiles.
Pre-release social media universe stats on Elio according to RelishMix were pacing -30% below first installment family animation genre norms across TikTok, Facebook, X, YouTube and Instagram combined at 272.5M “sans the creation of unique pages for the film while running between the studios’ and production company’s big social networks.”
Adds Relish, “Negative-leaning convo on Elio is bearing the weight of past disappointments from Disney and Pixar, as well as those who are cautious given the film’s delayed release by almost a year (editor’s note, Elio‘s original release date was March 1, 2024), given how the movie was supposed to debut last summer. Comments include, ‘Looks like a fun movie, but Pixar’s quality really seems to be diminishing,’ and, ‘Pixar is dead. This looks absolutely atrocious. All these new ones look the same!’ and, ‘Damn why did they announce this like a couple months ago only to release it like around a year later.”
Also not doing any favors here is the title: Elio. Is Elio the cousin of Pixar’s Luca who was jettisoned to Disney+ during Covid? Yes, one is set in Italy and the other in space, but the titles are too similarly sounding. One-word titles of people’s names are quite the risk.
Elio‘s business is spread between the East, South Central, Midwest and West. Currently, Disney’s owned Hollywood single screen, El Capitan, is the highest grossing for the pic stateside with close to $40k. Four stars, 83% positive on PostTrak, and a semi-hopeful word of mouth in a 59% definite recommend. Outside of those moviegoers who were transfixed to see Elio from the in-theater trailer (21% said it was the most influential marketing on PostTrak), buzz from family and friends at 13% was the second most persuasive push for Elio. Diversity demos are 47% Caucasian, 25% Hispanic and Latino, 12% Asian American and 9% Black. Men over 25 are leading at 35% in the general audience followed by women over 25 at 35%, men under 25 at 24% and women under 25 at 17%.
As forecasted, Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s How to Train Your Dragon remains No. 1 in its second weekend with $35.7M (-58%), though lower than the $40M+ hoped for. That’s another thing: While PG movies are all the rage, too many family movies weighs down on their pocketbooks. Elio could have used some space from Dragon here, and Disney’s Lilo & Stitch is still doing solid business in weekend 5 with a potential near $10M 3-day. What about the July 4th stretch? No family movies there, right? Um, well, Universal’s Jurassic World: Rebirth is going to eat everyone at its barbeque including formula one cars, Megans, and British zombies.
Total weekend is at $126.5M, -18% off from a year ago. It’s just hard to compete with the second weekend of Inside Out 2, which ranked as the best second frame for animated movie ever with $101.2M.
1.) How to Train Your Dragon (Uni) 4,373 (+17) theaters, Fri $10.8M (-69%), 3-day $35.7M (-58%), Total $159.1M/Wk 2
2.) 28 Years Later (Sony) 3,444 theaters, Fri $14M, 3-day $30M-$31M/Wk 1
3.) Elio (Dis) 3,750 theaters Fri $9M, 3-day $22M/Wk 1
4.) Lilo & Stitch (Dis) 3,375 (-300) theaters, Fri $3M (-38%), 3-day $9.7M (-38%), Total $386.7M/Wk 5
5.) Mission: Impossible – Final Reckoning (Par) 2,603 (-339) theaters, Fri $1.8M (-20%), 3-day $7.1M (-33%), Total $178.9M/Wk 5
6.) Materialists (A24) 2,844 theaters, Fri $1.9M (-61%), 3-day $6M (-45%), Total $24.1M/Wk 2
7.) Ballerina (LG) 2,537 (-872) theaters, Fri $1.29M (-45%), 3-day $4.6M (-52%), Total $51.2M/Wk 3
8.) Karate Kid: Legends (Sony) 2,006 (-1,002) theaters, Fri $700K (-45%), 3-day $2.4M (-54%), Total $49.3M/Wk 4
9.) Final Destination: Bloodlines (NL/WB) 1,342 (-796) theaters, Fri $575K (-53%), 3-day $1.9M (-53%), Total $134.8M
10.) Kuberra (Prath) 500 theaters, Fri $930K, 3-day $1.85M/Wk 1
With Telugu, Hindi, Malayalam, Kannada and Tamil prints, there were good ticket sales we hear in Austin, San Francisco, Seattle, Atlanta and NYC. The political thriller from Sekhar Kammula revolves around the pursuit of wealth and its consequences as a beggar undergoes a dramatic transformation in a story with themes of greed, ambition, and moral dilemmas.
Here’s the trailer:
Notables:
Bob Yari’s Rebel Wilson rom action com Bride Hard at 1,165 theaters, not good with $360K yesterday for what’s shaping up to be a $900K weekend or $772 per theater. Yikes. Audiences gave it a B- CinemaScore. Critics at 18% Rotten on Rotten Tomatoes wished they weren’t invited to the wedding.
UPDATED FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Sony’s 28 Years Later is coming in with a $14M Friday, on its way to a $28M-$30M opening as expected at 3,444 theaters. The movie, given its older skew and sophisticated audience bent, was never expected to be Final Destination: Bloodlines which came in with a $20.9M first Friday/previews and a $51.6M opening.
28 Years Later‘s first Friday is also ahead of 2022’s Scream ($13.3M, $30M 3-day) and last year’s Longlegs ($10M Friday/previews, $22.4M 3-day). Right now, 28 Years Later is looking at 2nd place in a weekend still ruled by Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s second weekend of How to Train Your Dragon with $35.2M (-58%) after a second Friday of $10.7M today. Running cume by Sunday at 4,373 theaters is $158.6M.
Disney’s Elio is third with about $9M today (including previews) for a $22M-$24M opening (others have it lower) at 3,750 theaters. Elemental, which we keep comping too because it’s Pixar and it was original, posted a first Friday inclusive of previews of $11.7M.
Disney’s fifth weekend of Lilo & Stitch is in fourth at 3,375 locations with $3M today and $10M for the 3-day, -36%, for a running total of $387M.
Weekend five of Paramount’s Mission: Impossible – Final Reckoning at 2,603 theaters is seeing $6.6M, -37%, for a running cume of $178.4M after a fifth Friday of $1.7M. Final Reckoning through 31 days will be pacing ahead of Dead Reckoning at the same point in time by +14%. Dead Reckoning finaled at $172.6M in U.S./Canada.
A24’s Materialists at 2,844 sites is eyeing $1.8M in its second Friday and an estimated $5.4M, -51% for a running ten-day tally by Sunday of $23.5M.
UPDATED FRIDAY AM AFTER EXCLUSIVE: Sony’s 28 Years Later gobbled up $5.8M in previews Thursday night. That’s an excellent preview number for a horror movie, especially in these times, besting the Thursday nights of Final Destination Bloodlines ($5.5M), Sinners ($4.7M), pre-Covid’s A Quiet Place ($4.3M) and even post-Covid’s Scream VI ($5.7M).
The question is whether moviegoers, like the undead themselves, will continue to run to 28 Years Later.
As we saw with the Rotten Tomatoes audience score of 68% last night, PostTrak audiences also were a hard crowd for this Danny Boyle movie, giving it 3 stars and a 54% definite recommend. Men over 25 showed up at 52% and gave the zombie third chapter its best grades at 75%. Women over 25 were next at 27% (72% grade), followed by women under 25 at 13% (65%) and men under 25 at 9% (74%).
Meanwhile, Disney/Pixar’s Elio in total Wednesday and Thursday previews did $3M. The animated feature is booked in 3,750 theatres including 725 Premium Large Format screens, 2,500+ 3D Screens and 175 D-Box/Motion screens. Elio, 28 Years Later and How to Train Your Dragon are sharing the PLFs, while Imax auditoriums will be held by the latter title.
Those who watched Elio are loving it with a 60% definite recommend from the general audience and 4½ stars. Kids under 12, a near even split between boys and girls at 51%/49%, also gave it 4½ stars. Parents, mostly dads yesterday at 56%, gave it 4 stars.
With yesterday being Juneteenth, a young federal holiday, distribution sources are mixed on whether it’s a big moviegoing day or not. Kids are already off from school — yeah, but adults are off from work. While not massive, the day did have a pulse, check it out: Eight of the movies in the top 10 saw spikes in their daily grosses over Wednesday, including How to Train Your Dragon (+15%), Materialists (+7%), Lilo & Stitch (+16%), Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (+22%), Ballerina (+10%), The Phoenician Scheme (+6%) and The Life of Chuck (+3%).
The Top 5 from Thursday:
1.) How to Train Your Dragon (Uni) 4,356 theaters, Thu $9.7M, Wk $123.4M/Wk 1
2.) Lilo & Stitch (Dis) 3,675 (-510) theaters, Thu $2.7M Wk $26M (-45%), Total $376.8M/Wk 4
3.) Materialists (A24) 2,844 theaters, Thu $1.6M, Wk $17.5M/Wk 1
4.) Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (Par) 2,942 theaters, Thu $1.5M, Wk $15.8M (-27%), Total $171.8M/Wk 4
5.) Ballerina (LG) 3,409 theaters, Thu $1.1M, $14.1M (-56%), Total $46.5M/Wk 2
EXCLUSIVE: Sony’s 28 Years Later is coming in with a preview gross tonight that’s well north of $5M, we are hearing from sources.
But don’t start comping it yet to New Line’s box office surprise sequel Final Destination Bloodlines, which did $5.5M in previews for a franchise-best opening of $51.6M.
Sony
Horror films are front-loaded, duh. Rotten Tomatoes audiences are being pretty hard on this Danny Boyle zombie movie at 67%, despite critics giving the installment the best reviews the 23-year-old franchise has ever seen at 92%. Final Destination Bloodlines earned both great reviews and audience exits on Rotten Tomatoes, with with 92% and 87%, respectively. Previews began at noon for 28 Years Later. Tracking spotted this virus-infected undead post-apocalyptic movie at an opening between $28M-$30M. The movie reps a return for Boyle as director and Alex Garland as screenwriter after 2002’s 28 Days Later. That movie opened to $10M back in the day at 1,261 theaters, while 28 Weeks Later, which was directed by Juan Carlos Fresnadillo, opened to $9.8M back in 2007 at 2,303 theaters.
‘Elio’
Disney/Pixar
Meanwhile, Disney/Pixar’s Elio is looking to be around $2.5M-$3M after two nights of previews. That’s about the amount of preview cash that Pixar’s summer 2023 movie, Elemental, banked before an $11.7M Friday and $29.6M opening. Elio is hoping to clear a 3-day between $20M-$25M. No RT audience scores yet, but critics enjoyed it at 86% certified fresh. Those reviews are stronger than Elemental at 73% fresh, which wound up with an audience score of 93% and a solid A CinemaScore. As we mentioned, the best advertisement for Elio is the movie itself. In a marketplace where it’s hard to launch original animation, the hope is that the pic directed by Adrian Molina, Madeline Sharafian and Domee Shi pulls an Elemental and posts some wild multiple of 5x or more (that pic ended its stateside run at $154.4M).
As we reported previously, Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s How to Train Your Dragon is expected to hold the fort at No. 1 with a second weekend of $40M-plus. Through Wednesday, the Dean DeBlois-directed live-action take of his animated movie is up to $113.7M.
