Gold price today: The breakneck rally in gold prices has pushed the yellow metal to fresh record highs and past the ₹1,06,000 mark on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).
This fresh round of rally is marked by structural changes rather than any speculative behaviour, believe analysts. In trade today, September 3, gold futures hit a new high of ₹1,06,289 per 10 grams. In the international market, too, gold surged to a fresh record high, consolidating gains above the key $3,500 level.
In the last one month alone, gold prices have spiked by 8% ahead of the festival and wedding season in India.
Gold prices at record high: What’s behind the rise?
Gold is entering a decisive phase, with multiple triggers aligning for a breakout, said Harshal Dasani, Business Head, INVAsset PMS.
In India, the onset of the festive season — from Navratri to Diwali — is expected to drive strong jewellery demand, historically one of the most reliable seasonal supports for bullion. Dealers have already begun quoting premiums in anticipation of robust purchases, a trend that tends to tighten supplies and support prices, said Dasani.
Expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve and lingering uncertainty over tariff policies continue to support gold prices.
Investors are pricing in a 92% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut at the end of the Fed’s policy meeting on September 17, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, according to a Reuters report. Meanwhile, the US dollar has declined 9% so far this year, making gold an attractive bet for overseas buyers.
On the global front, India’s closer alignment with China and Russia signals a shift away from dollar dominance, said Dasani. Both Beijing and Moscow have been steady accumulators of gold, while central banks worldwide continue diversifying their reserves, aiding the gold price rally.
Volatility is added due to the geopolitical tensions surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war, said NS Ramaswamy, Head -Commodity Desk and CRM – Ventura.
Gold’s further move is focused on this week’s US unemployment data and non-farm payrolls, which, along with expectations of a Fed rate cut, are likely to keep gold supported, Ramaswamy added.
Should you buy gold ahead of festive season for higher returns?
Even as the overall gold outlook remains positive, Ramaswamy said that buying after a major rally has its risks, which short-term investors might expose themselves to.
“Overall gold maintains a positive bias and trading range likely to be ₹1,03,500 to ₹1,08,000. Buying after a major rally is a speculative move, although gold prices may see a seasonal boost. Hence, for the short-term investors, buying gold right now carries this significant risk,” he added.
However, he believes that a long-term horizon and portfolio diversification make sense for investors, making gold a prudent strategy.
Festive demand could actually decrease, with consumers refraining from new purchases of physical gold (as also observed in late 2024), instead opting to trade in old jewellery, he said.
“Compulsive purchases may be limited to micro or mini lots, such as one-gram gold petals, driven by emotional and cultural sentiments. While culturally significant, buying jewellery involves making charges, whereas buying gold coins offers better value from an investment perspective,” he advised.
With festive demand in India, persistent central bank buying in China and Russia, and supportive macro undercurrents, gold appears well-positioned for its next leg higher, according to Dasani, who sees MCX gold prices rising to as high as ₹115,000 to ₹120,000.
In technical terms, Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, said that COMEX Gold has key support at $3400 and resistance at $3550, while MCX Gold holds support at ₹1,00,000 with resistance at ₹1,07,500.
Any dips toward support remain buying opportunities in the near term, he added.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
