Inox Wind Ltd’s shares have risen about 4% since its June quarter earnings call (Q1FY26) on Monday. Management has raised FY26 Ebitda margin guidance to 18–19% from 17–18%. The Q1FY26 Ebitda margin was 22%.
Cost controls, better equipment economics and new facilities should aid margin improvement. With nacelle and hub plants now operational and additional cranes deployed at sites, execution bottlenecks should ease. A new blade manufacturing unit in southern India should improve logistics and site access.
Despite weak Q1FY26 deliveries of 146 MW, as it focuses on clearing Q4 backlog, Inox reiterated its 1,200 MW target for FY26 and 2,000 MW for FY27.
The management maintained that the annual plan remains on track, with execution expected to accelerate in the second half. A pickup is likely from Q3, aided by the recent Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) circular on hybridising transmission infrastructure. The company also has a multi-gigawatt order pipeline and expects to convert a substantial portion into firm orders in the coming months.
Some brokerages are, however, cautious. ICICI Securities believes the lower order inflow of 51MW in Q1 reduces the visibility of revenues in FY27. “Thus, we are tapering FY27 estimates on execution to 1.5GW (from 1.7GW earlier),” said the broking firm’s report last month. Note that Inox’s order book as of June-end is 3.1 GW.
Meanwhile, the company’s O&M (operations & maintenance) arm’s renewable portfolio, Inox Green, has crossed 5 GW, with a target of 17 GW in two years across solar and wind. This can provide steady cash flows to offset the lumpiness of project execution.
Inox has completed a ₹1,250 crore rights issue and restructured its business by merging with Inox Wind Energy, which cut liabilities. It is also transferring the substation business to Inox Renewable Solutions, and plans to eventually demerge and list it.
Amid weak execution, Inox’s shares have declined about 20% so far in 2025. The stock trades at 27 times FY27’s estimated earnings, as per Bloomberg. All eyes are now on execution, especially how H2FY26 will pan out.
If Inox can match its delivery promise without margin slippage, sentiment could turn positive. JM Financial Institutional Securities has projected Inox’s revenue and Ebitda to grow at a CAGR of 32% and 31%, respectively, over FY25–28. JM’s sum-of-the-parts-based target price is ₹158 for the stock that currently trades at ₹146.
