Our betting expert expects a relatively low-scoring contest, with Kylian Mbappe to score first before half-time.
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Best bets for Real Madrid vs Villarreal
- Kylian Mbappe to score first at odds of 3.60 on Stake
- Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.78 on Stake
- 1st Half – Real Madrid at odds of 1.85 on Stake
Real Madrid are expected to win 2-0 against Villarreal.
Our analysis: Form of both teams
Real Madrid are still recovering from the shock of a 5-2 derby defeat to Atletico last weekend. They boasted a perfect record in all competitions until that loss, having won all seven of their matches to start the new campaign.
Xabi Alonso’s side responded in the right manner. They won 5-0 in Kazakhstan against Kairat on Tuesday night, with in-form Mbappe netting a hat-trick.
Villarreal were also in Champions League action just 24 hours later. They had to come from behind, but managed what may prove to be an important point with a 2-2 draw against Juventus. The Yellow Submarine have won their last three matches in La Liga, and are in third place heading into this weekend.
Madrid will be keen to return to winning ways, and punters looking for value in this clash can take advantage of promotions like the Stake Promo Code, which often offers boosted odds and rewards on marquee fixtures such as this one.
Probable lineups for Real Madrid vs Villarreal
Real Madrid expected lineup: Courtois, Huijsen, Tchouameni, Asencio, Carreras, Camavinga, Guler, Valverde, Bellingham, Vinicius, Mbappe
Villarreal expected lineup: Junior, Cardona, Marin, Veiga, Mourino, Moleiro, Gueye, Partey, Akhomach, Mikautadze, Pepe
Mbappe’s hot streak to continue
Mbappe has had an impressive start to the new campaign. Having struggled in the opening stages of last term, the ex-PSG forward has completely settled in Madrid. Although he probably needs to rest, Alonso is clearly unwilling to bench the Frenchman given his current form.
Mbappe has only failed to score once in 10 appearances for club and country so far this term. He has scored nine times in his last five appearances for Los Blancos. Having already scored eight goals in La Liga, the 26-year-old is well on course to win the Pichichi again.
Given his scoring record, many punters looking for value on online betting sites will keep a close eye on his first goalscorer market.
With an implied probability of 27.8%, Mbappe is the outstanding candidate to score first in this contest. He has broken the deadlock in 44% of Real Madrid fixtures in all competitions this season.
- Real Madrid vs Villarreal Bet 1: Kylian Mbappe to score first at odds of 3.60 on Stake
Goal fest is unlikely
While both sides are quite strong in attack, there’s reason to think this game may not turn into a goal fest. Both sides will be a little fatigued at the end of a busy period, so an all-action contest seems unlikely.
Following some smart summer transfer business, Villarreal are now much stronger defensively. They’ve allowed just 1.01 xG per game so far in La Liga, compared to 1.17 last term and 1.54 the season before.
They allowed just 0.54 xG in a 1-0 defeat to Spurs, and 1.00 xG in a 2-0 loss to Atleti when they played away from home. Those tricky away games indicated how they might approach this match. Marcelino favours a counter-attacking style, particularly in tough fixtures, so this game might not feature plenty of goals.
- Real Madrid vs Villarreal Bet 2: Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.78 on Stake
Hosts to lead at the break
While Real Madrid have reacted positively to their decisive derby loss, the Bernabeu is a demanding place, so the home fans will expect a response.
Xabi Alonso’s team have frequently been aggressive from the first whistle. This is a change from parts of last season, when it took a while for Carlo Ancelotti’s side to find their momentum.
Real Madrid have been much better in the first half than the second half this term in La Liga. 62% of their goals scored have come before the interval. Meanwhile, they conceded 62% of goals after half-time.
They’ve led at half-time in three of their last four fixtures in all competitions. Therefore, a repeat performance is worth backing, with an implied probability of 54.1%.
- Real Madrid vs Villarreal Bet 3: 1st Half – Real Madrid at odds of 1.85 on Stake
