Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX), the country’s leading commodity derivatives exchange, saw its shares continue to break record highs in recent sessions, with a new lifetime high of ₹9,460 per share registered in Tuesday’s trading session, marking a 6% gain and a second consecutive day of upward momentum.
The recent rally has pushed the stock up 19% so far in October and a 52% gain in 2025, making it one of the top performers among capital market stocks. Analysts attribute the strong rise to a significant increase in gold and silver trading volumes over recent months, driven by growing institutional participation and hedging activity on the platform.
The continued rise in gold and silver prices has attracted more traders and investors to the market to hedge risks, speculate on price movements, or invest in precious metals, which the Street expects will drive higher revenue for the company.
Market experts believe that gold and silver are expected to emerge as major contributors to options premiums, and this trend is firmly on track and gaining strength.
Riding the bullion wave
According to HDFC Securities, options premium average daily trading volume (ADTV) has witnessed robust growth, jumping to approximately ₹67 billion in October 2025 from ₹41 billion in Q2FY25, led by surging gold and silver volumes, which now account for roughly 60% of total notional volume and 30% of premium ADTV.
The brokerage noted that bullion contracts have scaled rapidly following the shift to monthly expiry, gaining traction and diversifying MCX’s revenue mix. It expects bullion to contribute 40% of total premium by Q4FY27E, materially reducing earlier concentration risk from crude oil and natural gas contracts, which previously accounted for 85% of the share.
Looking ahead, the brokerage expects that the upcoming launch of cash-settled index contracts such as Metldex and Bulldex will generate further growth and attract higher participation from FPIs and institutional investors.
SEBI’s indication to allow FPI and domestic institutional participation in non-cash-settled commodities is also viewed as a positive step, especially considering MCX’s current FPI volume share of only 3%, compared with 20% for equity exchanges.
Additionally, the brokerage believes that the introduction of co-location facilities in commodities could pave the way for high-frequency trading (HFT) activity, which has been a significant volume driver in equity markets.
HDFC Securities expects MCX stock to rise to ₹10,000
The brokerage has kept its ‘buy’ rating intact and expects the stock to reach ₹10,000 per share, based on 46x Sep-27E core EPS, while adding cash excluding SGF and trading margin.
It projects that notional and premium ADTV will register over 62% and 33% CAGR, respectively, resulting in a revenue/PAT CAGR of over 27% and 33% over FY25–28E. Consequently, it revised its revenue, and EPS estimates by 7–9% and raised the multiple to 46x from the earlier 45x.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
