Bublik rides a wave of summer success while Paul looks to reclaim his spark on the big stage.
Mandatory Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images
The 23rd seed, Alexander Bublik, and the 14th seed, Tommy Paul, square off in the third round of the 2025 US Open. Bublik has looked sharp, dismissing Marin Cilic and wild card Tristan Schoolkate in straight sets. Paul, meanwhile, eased past Elma Moller but had to battle through a five-set test against Nuno Borges.
Bublik’s season has been a rollercoaster, marked by inconsistency early on but lifted by a sizzling summer surge. After a Challenger final in Phoenix and a title in Turin, he reached the Roland Garros quarterfinals before capturing Halle, where he defeated Daniil Medvedev. Fatigue forced him out of Eastbourne, but he rebounded with back-to-back titles in Gstaad and Kitzbuel. With 437 aces, 77% first-serve points won, and a 40% break conversion rate, his power game is peaking at the right time.
Paul’s year tells a different story. Strong early form brought semifinals in Adelaide, Dallas, Houston, and Rome, capped by a breakthrough French Open quarterfinal run, the first by an American man in Paris in 23 years. That run pushed him to world No. 8, but a post-Roland Garros slump has dragged him back to No. 14. Even with 226 aces, 72% first-serve points won, and 45% break conversion, he has struggled to convert performances into wins.
Alexander Bublik vs. Tommy Paul Head-to-Head Record
Tommy Paul has dominated this head-to-head, holding a 3-0 lead over Alexander Bublik at the tour level. Their rivalry began in 2021 at Rotterdam, followed by Wimbledon in 2024, and most recently at Miami in 2025, all won by the American. Wimbledon was the only meeting where Paul closed it out in straight sets. The other two required three sets, hinting that Bublik can put pressure too.
Their history stretches even further back to the qualifying rounds and Challenger circuits. Paul came out on top at the 2019 Playford Challenger and the 2020 Hamburg qualifying, underlining his early upper hand in the matchup. Still, Bublik owns one bright spot, a straight-sets win over Paul in the 2019 London qualifying round, his lone victory in their series.
| Year | Round | Event | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Round of 64 | Miami | Tommy Paul | 5-7, 7-5, 6-4 |
| 2024 | Round of 32 | Wimbledon | Tommy Paul | 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 |
| 2021 | Round of 16 | Rotterdam | Tommy Paul | 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-1 |
Alexander Bublik vs. Tommy Paul Comparison
| Tommy Paul | Category | Alexander Bublik |
| 14 | Current Ranking | 24 |
| 203-137 | Career W-L | 176-165 |
| 27-12 | YTD W-L | 24-15 |
| 4 | Career Titles | 7 |
| 0 | Grand Slams | 0 |
| 0 | YTD Titles | 3 |
Alexander Bublik vs. Tommy Paul Prediction
Bublik’s hot summer form and serving firepower suggest he holds the momentum, but if Paul rediscovers his Roland Garros level, this could go the distance.
Prediction: Alexander Bublik in straight sets
Alexander Bublik vs. Tommy Paul US Open 2025 Betting Odds
With the bookmakers giving Bublik a slight edge at 17/20 over Paul’s 49/50, the Kazakh enters as the marginal favorite.
Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:
Alexander Bublik: 17/20
Tommy Paul: 49/50
Here are the odds for total games as well as total sets for both players (sourced via BetMGM):
Total Sets Under 3.5: 7/4
Total Sets Over 3.5: 4/9
Total Games Under 37.5: 27/20
Total Game Over 37.5: 4/7
Bublik Set 1 Winner: 17/20
Paul Set 1 Winner: 23/25
(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
Mandatory Image Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images
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