Expert view: Shiv Gupta, the founder and CEO of Sanctum Wealth, says family offices and HNIs (high-net-worth individuals) are steadily increasing allocations to alternative assets such as commercial real estate, REITs, InvITs, private credit, and private equity to diversify beyond traditional holdings like equities, fixed income, gold, and silver. In an interview with Mint, Gupta shared his views on the outlook for the Indian stock market for the second half of the current financial year (H2FY26), gold and bond investments. Here are edited excerpts of the interview:
What is your outlook for the Indian stock market for H2FY26? What are the key headwinds and tailwinds?
With the Nifty 50 largely flat over the past year, the Indian market has under-participated in the global rally due to high valuations, muted earnings growth, global rotation, and the absence of fresh triggers, all of which capped returns even as the domestic economy remained fundamentally strong.
However, with supportive macroeconomic conditions, somewhat more reasonable valuations, and a gradual earnings recovery expected in H2FY26, we foresee a “slow march” forward for markets, more escalator than elevator, led by domestic consumption-oriented and quality growth stocks rather than a sharp, broad-based rally.
Think “range-bound with a positive bias.” Tailwinds include real GDP growth expectations of around 6.8%, inflation trending below 5%, and prospects for a rate-cut cycle of 50–75 bps as global conditions ease.
These are underpinned by robust domestic liquidity, with monthly SIP inflows of over ₹20,000 crore, and strong long-term investor sentiment.
Headwinds include risks from external shocks, both economic and geopolitical, as well as India’s still-high valuations.
How do you see the boom in India’s wealth management sector?
The boom we are witnessing in Indian wealth management is a structural transformation driving a massive shift in the size, scope, and sophistication of the industry.
Three forces are driving it: first, sustained economic growth and wealth creation, as India compounds at one of the world’s fastest sustainable rates; second, financialization, with savings steadily migrating from gold, real estate, and deposits into mutual funds, equities, and alternatives; and third, the expansion and deepening of capital markets, which today offer investors accessibility and variety unimaginable a decade ago.
This creates a huge opportunity across the wealth pyramid, from emerging affluent clients to ultra-high-net-worth families.
While competition is intense, the market is expanding fast enough for multiple models to thrive.
The industry is witnessing rapid capacity building and rising sophistication, though there remains a need for deeper investment in people, fiduciary standards, and technology.
The Nifty has delivered negative returns over the past year. What should be our portfolio strategies at this juncture?
Yes, market sentiment has been somewhat weak, but fundamentals are improving. While a sharp rally is unlikely, a gradual recovery appears probable.
Over the next couple of years, index-level returns may remain modest, perhaps 7 – 8% CAGR, but this creates conditions for active managers to generate alpha through careful stock and sector selection.
At an overall portfolio level, asset allocation and diversification remain paramount, anchored in investor profiles and including allocations across equities, both domestic and international, debt, and alternatives such as gold, private equity, and private credit.
In the current phase, quality large caps, select midcaps, and global diversification can enhance both resilience and return potential.
Where is smart money moving? How are Indian HNIs allocating capital overseas?
Family offices and HNIs are steadily increasing allocations to alternative assets such as commercial real estate, REITs, InvITs, private credit, and private equity to diversify beyond traditional holdings like equities, fixed income, gold, and silver.
With Indian equities expected to deliver muted near-term returns and fixed income facing higher taxation, investors are looking for efficient diversification.
Gold and silver, while fundamentally strong, have already rallied significantly.
Historically, Indian HNIs remained domestically concentrated due to capital controls and strong local returns.
However, with Indian equities lagging behind global peers recently, interest in overseas assets has grown. Most investors begin with US equities, showing a preference for AI-focused technology leaders and diversified global ETFs.
Gold’s stellar returns this year have outwitted many experts. Do you think it is time to increase exposure to equities?
Gold has indeed rallied sharply this year, up more than 30% in just the last six months, driven by central bank buying, rising ETF inflows, and concerns over U.S. stagflation, factors that largely persist.
After a brief pause in July, central banks added 15 tonnes of gold in August, with ETFs posting their third straight month of inflows. With signs of a U.S. slowdown, persistent inflation, and a softer dollar, gold’s long-term fundamentals remain supportive, though some near-term consolidation is likely.
In our model portfolio, we are booking partial gains while remaining overweight in gold for strategic reasons.
At the same time, we are also raising equity exposure, given reasonable valuations in quality domestic consumer-facing companies and a likely earnings recovery through FY26.
What is your view on bond investments? Why should bonds be part of one’s portfolio?
Bonds provide stability, liquidity, and income, and remain a core part of most client portfolios, which can be accessed directly or through funds and alternatives.
For investors in higher tax brackets, however, traditional debt instruments can be tax-inefficient.
Hence, HNIs increasingly favour tax-optimised options such as REITs, InvITs, income-plus-arbitrage strategies, equity savings schemes, and newly launched hybrid SIFs.
Those with higher risk appetites continue to explore private credit and venture debt.
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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of the expert, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
