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With Julian Nagelsmann’s Germany now 3rd in Group A after a third of their qualifiers played, this home game with Luxembourg takes on huge importance.
Best bets for Germany vs Luxembourg
- Luxembourg +3 (Handicap 3-Way) at odds of 2.30 with Stake
- Germany Under 1.5 Goals (1st half) at odds of 1.72 with Stake
- Nick Woltemade Anytime Goalscorer at odds of 1.77 with Stake
Germany vs Luxembourg should end in a home win for Die Mannschaft.
Our analysis: Form of both teams
Germany host Luxembourg in their third 2026 World Cup qualifier in Group A, having picked up just three points from their opening two games.
German head coach, Julian Nagelsmann, is overseeing a major rebuild of the national team. Several prospects have a chance to prove themselves, having graduated from the U21 side. These emerging talents suffered a shock loss in Slovakia before scraping past Northern Ireland.
Nevertheless, Nagelsmann appears set to keep the faith in his new-look squad. The clash against minnows Luxembourg is an ideal opportunity for them to try and regain their confidence. Centre forward, Nick Woltemade, has joined up with the squad after impressing in recent weeks for his Premier League club side, Newcastle United.
After successive Group A losses to Northern Ireland and Slovakia, Luxembourg’s slim chances of reaching next summer’s World Cup finals look even more unlikely. A defeat to Germany would make qualification almost impossible.
They came within seconds of earning a point at home to Slovakia, who struck in stoppage time to win a tight contest. However, their away form remains a concern. They’ve lost six of their last ten away games and won only one. If you’re considering betting on an upset or another tough night for Luxembourg, the Stake Promo Code can help you find boosted odds and special markets.
Probable lineups for Germany vs Luxembourg
Germany expected lineup: Nubel, Raum, Kimmich, Tah, Schlotterbeck, Stiller, Goretzka, Gnabry, Wirtz, Adeyemi, Woltemade
Luxembourg expected lineup: Moris, Bohnert, Jans, Carlson, Korac, Mamutovic, Sinani, Barreiro, Olesen, Dardari, Muratovic
Backing Luxembourg to avoid defeat by three or more goals
Given Germany’s ongoing transition, it’s little surprise that Die Mannschaft haven’t beaten any nation by three or more goals in their last seven fixtures. They have only managed this once in their previous ten games.
There’s no doubt that Luxembourg’s only approach will be to defend in a low block and frustrate the home side. They came very close to keeping a clean sheet against current Group A leaders Slovakia.
Many online betting sites now offer handicap and margin markets, which could make this game particularly interesting for bettors expecting a tight contest.
Although we only see one winner at the final whistle, we also see some value in backing Luxembourg to avoid defeat by a three-goal margin.
- Germany vs Luxembourg Bet 1: Luxembourg +3 (Handicap 3-Way) at odds of 2.30 with Stake
Nervy first half expected
Given that Luxembourg manager, Luc Holtz, is likely to adopt a 5-4-1 system and try to contain Germany, the first half could be a tense affair for the home fans. The crowd at the PreZero Arena will need a lot of patience for this match.
With that in mind, we’re backing Germany to score no more than one goal in the first 45 minutes. It’s possible that Luxembourg’s resistance will be broken at some point in the half, but we don’t expect Germany to run away with the game straight away.
The pressure on Nagelsmann’s men to win and get their 2026 World Cup hopes back on track is immense. This too could weigh heavily on his young side in the opening stages of the match.
- Germany vs Luxembourg Bet 2: Germany Under 1.5 Goals (1st half) at odds of 1.72 with Stake
Woltemade to come to Germany’s rescue
There is only one goalscorer to back in the anytime market for this match. Nick Woltemade has made an instant impact on Tyneside. He’s scored three goals in four Premier League games since his move from VfB Stuttgart. This includes a converted penalty in the Magpies’ recent win over Nottingham Forest.
With a 75% strike rate in Newcastle colours so far in 2025/26, the betting markets appear to have undervalued his chances of finding the net against Luxembourg.
We can back him to score any time at a probability of just 56.50%. Saturday’s game will see him face a much lower calibre of opposition, with Wirtz and co. an equally formidable supply line. The 23-year-old stands out as the value bet from our trio of Germany vs Luxembourg predictions.
- Germany vs Luxembourg Bet 3: Nick Woltemade Anytime Goalscorer at odds of 1.77 with Stake
