Gold Prices: Dhanteras — one of the most auspicious days for gold purchases in India — arrives this year amid a powerful rally in bullion prices. For Indian households, gold has long been more than just a festive buy; it’s a trusted store of long-term value — a strategy that has consistently delivered. This is reflected in Indian households’ status as the world’s largest holder of private gold reserves, valued at over $3 trillion.
Since last Dhanteras, gold has delivered a remarkable return of nearly 60%, significantly outperforming the Nifty 50, which has remained flat. Strong central bank buying, rising geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainty have been the key drivers of the gold price rally. Moreover, rate cut expectations are another factor driving bullion’s appeal.
With this, gold has offered positive returns over the last four Dhanteras in a row, with the last fall of 5% witnessed in 2020-21. This year, Dhanteras falls on Saturday, October 18. And analysts anticipate another year of winnings despite gold’s record rally to new highs.
Gold prices were trading 1.69% higher on Friday at ₹132,052, after scaling a ₹132,294 per 10 grams”>fresh peak of ₹132,294 per 10 grams on MCX earlier today.
What can drive gold prices ahead?
The investment demand is still showing no signs of slowing down. The gold ETF demand in the first half of 2025 reached 397 tonnes, the highest since the pandemic surge in 2020. Physical demand has also remained robust as global bar and coin investments rose 11% year-on-year in Q2, touching 307 tonnes, a 12-year high.
The auspicious festive time during the last Dhanteras witnessed sales volume close to 25-30 tons. Despite the lower quantity, the sales value in monetary terms saw an increase approx. 12-18% surge.
Consumers have adapted to buying design-rich ornaments and lightweight buying with smaller items like gold coins due to record-high prices. During Q2 2025, jewellery demand dropped 17% year-on-year, while other investment options and alternatives saw increased demand.
According to brokerage Axis Securities, gold demand could continue in the coming year, backed by these factors:
1. A hyperinflation scenario due to excessive money printing by the Central bank, particularly the US, to service its debt. This may devalue the currency, which can drive investors to park their funds in bullion, particularly Gold.
2. The de-dollarisation trend initiated by several central banks globally has supported the rise in gold prices. If this trend accelerates next year, gold is likely to continue reaching new highs.
3. The rising ETF demand is pushing prices to a record high. If ETF inflows remain strong, gold prices are likely to continue their upward trajectory into next year, the brokerage said.
4. Central banks have been accumulating gold at every price dip. Last year, they added over 1,180 tonnes to their reserves. Although the pace of buying has slowed this year due to gold trading at record highs, central banks are still on track to reach around 1,000 tonnes by year-end. If this buying trend continues into next year, gold prices could see a significant rally, said Axis Securities.
5. President Trump’s irrational tariff policies have already spooked the global market, which has benefited precious metals. Global uncertainty, combined with expectations of rate cuts, will benefit gold prices next year.
Gold price target and strategy
According to brokerage Religare Broking, fresh accumulation in gold may be considered on dips toward ₹1,14,000– ₹1,18,000 per 10 grams, with potential upside targets of ₹1,35,000 and ₹1,42,000 per 10 grams.
Conversely, a sustained move below ₹1,05,000 per 10 grams would weaken the prevailing uptrend and could trigger a deeper corrective phase, it opined.
Axis Securities recommended accumulating gold on dips in the range of ₹1,15,000 to ₹1,05,000, with a potential upside target of ₹1,45,000-1,50,000 by next Diwali.
NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities & CRM, Ventura said the gold outlook for Dhanteras 2025 is likely to continue with the bullish momentum in bullion. “Price resistances seen at ₹130000 – ₹135000. Support comes at ₹121000/$4000. Weakness could set in only on breaking ₹120000/$3980,” the analyst opined.
Starting the next rally from Dhanteras 2025, the unchartered territory of $5000 per ounce/ ₹150000 per ten grams could be in 2026, he added.
Technical outlook for gold
Gold has experienced a parabolic rally since August 2025, surging from ₹98,500 per 10 grams ($3,312 per ounce) to a new all-time high within just two months.
The trend structure remains exceptionally strong, characterised by a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows, supported by sustained buying interest and global risk factors, Religare Broking said.
“The price action continues to hold firmly above the rising short-term moving averages — the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (DEMA) — with no clear signs of trend exhaustion yet. However, the rapid pace of this advance has pushed gold into overbought territory, increasing the likelihood of short-term profit booking or sideways consolidation,” it added.
A pullback toward key moving averages, such as the 20-day or 50-day SMA, could provide a healthy correction and present fresh buying opportunities, it opined. Typically, shallow corrections to these support zones tend to attract renewed buying from trend-following participants, as per the brokerage.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
