In a couple short months, Australia Cup season will be in full bloom. We’ll have a complete slate of 32 contenders, new faces hoping to prove themselves, and a new title sponsor to toast it all with. But before we can lock all that in, we’ve got business to attend to, as Darwin hosts its second of two A-League playoffs to decide which of the top flight’s bottom-feeders have the right to play.
After a dismal campaign from day one, Brisbane Roar find themselves back where it all started going wrong. However, their opponents on Wednesday night (7.30pm AEST) are the real surprise, as Wellington Phoenix’s massive downturn sent them tumbling down the table and into a dangerous position. One of these teams will enter the offseason knowing they at least have a chance to retool and make a run at the Cup, while the other will spend a long few months picking up the pieces. Before it all goes down up north, let’s refresh on why these teams have to be here and size up the potential heroes in waiting who might send their side into the national rounds.
Phoenix look to rise from ashes
It’s been a rough year to be a Wellington fan. After falling early in last year’s Australia Cup to eventual semifinalists South Melbourne, Wellington spent the A-League season languishing in poor form, including going winless for all of February and March, while their new rivals Auckland FC immediately rocketed to a trophy. With desperation for silverware approaching all-time highs, the last thing the Nix need is for their next chance to end before it starts, and they’ll do everything they can to keep this path open.
Fortunately, this team isn’t entirely without quality—in fact, they’ve got two viable options in net. Between Joshua Oluwayemi, the usual starter, and Alby Kelly-Heald, who took over the job for a couple months while the Nigerian was injured, their last line of defence should be up to the task no matter what happens on the night.
They’ve also got a couple of bright lights in the midfield. More towards the back, we have Alex Rufer, who helped New Zealand become one of the first countries to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. Rufer’s tackling, interceptions, and overall workrate make him a valuable presence when Wellington are on the defensive and looking to counter. Ahead of him, we find Kazuki Nagasawa, who was indispensable in the Nix’ most recent win against Newcastle, involving himself in both of their goals.
(Photo by Jeremy Ng/Getty Images)
In attack, the obvious spotlight goes to Kosta Barbarouses, who’s scored 10 goals this year, but the real man to fear might be Japanese winger Hideki Ishige, whose eight assists make him one of the best playmakers in the A-League right now.
Roar attempt great escape
After getting all the way to the Australia Cup final in 2023, Brisbane Roar took a massive step backwards in last year’s playoff, falling surprisingly easily to Perth Glory. That proved an ill omen for the Lions, who went from nearly avoiding Darwin in the first place last season to going winless for 13 straight A-League matches and battling Perth for the ignominious wooden spoon. While they’d at least avoid that dishonour, it still wasn’t enough to avoid the trip north.
The team’s most consistent standout has been team captain Jay O’Shea. With a team-leading six assists and nine goal involvements, if anything good’s happening on the attack, chances are the Irishman has something to do with it. If he’s shut down, the Roar can turn to fellow midfielder Henry Hore, who learned well from his loan to K League side Gangwon and has provided three goals and an assist since his February return
(Photo by Albert Perez/Getty Images)
Either one should also be able to send it upfield to Asumah Abubakar, who’s proved to be Brisbane’s best pickup of the last transfer window. With four goals and two assists since his arrival from Swiss side Grasshoppers, the Portuguese striker has provided a much-needed jolt of energy in attack.
The Roar will also bring an element of tactical surprise, as they’ve ditched Ruben Zadkovich for former Melbourne City manager and Greek national team assistant Michael Valkanis. How long he’ll last is up in the air, given his track record, but a win here would surely help his case.
Wait, do lions eat Kiwis?: the keys to victory
The standings will tell you Wellington have been the better team over the course of the year, but it’s Brisbane who’ll come in with the momentum. The Roar ended the A-League season with a four-match unbeaten streak and three wins, while the Nix skid into Darwin on a four-loss streak—and crucially, one of those losses was directly at Brisbane’s hands. That’s a massive psychological edge for a team that hasn’t enjoyed many of those this season.
Michael Valkanis likely won’t be implementing his system in full yet, given how recently he took the Brisbane job, but there’s a solid blueprint in place from these teams’ last meeting. If the defence stays solid and the trio of O’Shea, Hore, and Abubakar make noise on their side of the field, a path to the game-deciding goal should open up.
Conversely, Phoenix will want to try and funnel incoming attacks away from that side to Brisbane’s weaker one, but that shouldn’t be their main priority. Instead, they should limit Brisbane’s opportunities through control of possession and the match’s overall tempo. They can’t afford a situation like these teams’ last meeting, where the Roar took five shots for every one the Nix attempted. If they can invert that statistic and shell Brisbane’s net, their chances of escaping Darwin will go up significantly.
This match might get overshadowed in the heat of the A-League finals, but for whoever wins, it could pave the way for a magical run a couple of months down the line.
