ITC shareholders stare at losses in two years but analysts are bullish; here’s why  

Shares of ITC Ltd, which have witnessed correction in the short term, look set to see marginal recovery in the near term. However, a small dip could take their two-year returns in negative zone, which currently stand at a gain of 2.38%. The FMCG stock which hit a 52 week-low of Rs 391.50 on March 3, 2025 was trading at Rs 415 in the current session. The large cap stock has slipped 8% in a year and fallen 8.28% on year to date basis. However, it clocked 165% returns in the last five years. 

Foreign investors or FIIs have sold the stock for the fourth straight quarter. In September 2024 quarter, FII stake stood at 40.5%, which fell to 40.2% in the December quarter. It stood at 38% in the June quarter declining from 39.9% on a quarter-on-quarter basis. In the September 2025 quarter, the FII holding stood at 37.4%. 

However, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) kept adding the stock to their portfolios in the last four quarters. DII holding in the  September 2025 quarter stood at 47.5% against 47% in the preceding quarter. It rose from 44.6% in the September quarter to 45% in the December 2024 quarter. In the March 2025 quarter, DII holding stood at 45.2%. 

ITC shares are neither oversold nor overbought on charts, with their RSI standing at 64. The FMCG stock trades higher than all its long-term and short-term moving averages, implying some strength in the FMCG sector’s defensive bet.

Analysts mostly seem bullish on the outlook of the FMCG stock. Here’s what they said. 

Brokerage Emkay Global has a price target of Rs 475 on the ITC stock. 

Emkay Global has an ADD rating on ITC with a target price of Rs 475, suggesting a 14% potential upside from the current level of Rs 415.

The positive outlook is backed by factors such as improved management execution, a strong position in its core cigarette business, and growth in the FMCG sector, despite recent performance fluctuations and industry challenges. 

Riyank Arora technical analyst at Mehta Equities said, “ITC remains in a gradual uptrend, supported by strong defensive demand and steady earnings visibility. The stock is holding firm above Rs 410, which now acts as key support. A breakout above Rs 425 could lead to further upside towards Rs 440– Rs 450 levels. The overall sentiment stays bullish, and traders may continue to accumulate on declines for medium-term gains.”

AR Ramachandran, SEBI registered Independent analyst says, “ITC stock price is bullish but slightly overbought on the Daily charts with strong support at Rs 413.5. A daily close above resistance of Rs 427 could lead to a target of Rs 443 in the near term.”