The Nifty 50 could touch 26,800 by March 2026 in a Goldilocks scenario of an overall reduction in volatility and a soft landing in the US market, according to brokerage firm Axis Securities.
Axis believes Nifty’s earnings may grow at 17-18 per cent over FY23-27 amid the expectations of political stability, policy continuity, fiscal prudence, an improving private capital expenditure cycle, rural revival, and a soft landing in the US market.
All this would augur well for capital inflows into emerging markets (EMs) and increase the domestic market multiples, Axis said.
The brokerage firm remains confident in India’s long-term growth story, due to the country’s favourable economic structure, rising capital expenditure, and increased consumption from the recent Union Budget and GST 2.0 reforms, driving credit growth for banks.
However, in its base case, Axis Securities’ March 2026 Nifty target is 25,500, even as it sees upside risk to this target due to the expectations of the earnings upgrade starting from Q3FY26.
In the bear case, Axis sees Nifty 50 at 21,600 by the end of the current financial year.
Stocks to buy
Axis has suggested 15 stocks to buy, out of which seven are large-caps, three are mid-caps, and the remaining five are small-cap stocks.
Bajaj Finance, SBI, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, Shriram Finance, Avenue Supermarts (DMart), and Max Healthcare Institute are the seven large-cap stocks to buy suggested by Axis Securities.
Hero MotoCorp, Prestige Estates Projects, and APL Apollo Tubes are the three mid-cap stocks to buy, while Mahanagar Gas, Inox Wind, Kirloskar Brothers, Sansera Engineering, and Kalpataru Projects International are the five small-cap stocks that Axis suggests buying.
Bajaj Finance | Target price: ₹1,160
Axis believes Bajaj Finance’s margins may improve by nearly 10 bps in FY26, driven by a sharp decline in cost of funds.
The brokerage firm expects Bajaj Finance’s NIMs to remain steady, ranging between 8.9 per cent and 9 per cent over FY26-28E, driven by the faster transmission of rate cuts, which is reflected in the cost of funds.
SBI | Target price: ₹1,055
Axis said SBI remains well-poised to sustain its growth momentum, supported by its comfortable LDR, providing it with leverage to accelerate credit growth.
“While near-term pressures are expected to be visible on NIMs, benefit from deposit rate cuts, which will reflect in cost of funds from the second half (H2) onwards, should support NIM recovery,” said Axis.
“Asset quality does not pose challenges, and thus, credit costs should remain benign. Collectively, this should ensure a comfortable 1 per cent RoA delivery over FY26-28E. The recent QIP has strengthened the Tier I capital, adequate to fuel medium-term growth,” Axis said.
HDFC Bank | Target price: ₹1,170
According to the brokerage firm, the margin compression seen in the first half is expected to reverse going in the second half, supported by deposit repricing and CRR cut driving exit margins higher.
“The NIM pressures would be adequately offset by controlled opex and benign credit costs, enabling HDFC Bank to deliver RoA/RoE of 1.8-1.9%/15-16% over FY26-28E,” said Axis.
Bharti Airtel | Target price: ₹2,300
Axis underscored that Bharti Airtel’s business fundamentals remain strong, with continued improvements across key metrics.
“Management anticipates sustained revenue and profit growth driven by expanding rural distribution, network investments, and increasing 4G coverage,” said Axis.
Shriram Finance | Target price: ₹860
“With demand buoyancy in the rural markets and healthy growth visibility across most of the segment, Shriram Finance is expected to deliver a consistent and healthy nearly 16 per cent CAGR AUM growth over the medium term,” said Axis.
“Shriram Finance’s strong delivery on return ratios over FY26-28E is expected to sustain, with RoA/RoE ranging between 3.2-3.3%/16-17%. Consistent growth delivery, NIM improvement, while maintaining asset quality, should drive stock performance,” said Axis.
Avenue Supermarts (DMart) | Target price: ₹4,960
Axis highlighted that DMart has undertaken several initiatives, including changes in leadership, improving profitability in D-Mart Ready, and targeting a 10-20 per cent store addition on an existing base of 432 stores.
“Improving consumer sentiment, supported by stable macroeconomic conditions, GST 2.0 reforms, and a strong festive demand outlook in H2FY26, is expected to strengthen these initiatives and accelerate growth in high-margin general merchandise and apparel segments,” said Axis.
Max Healthcare | Target price: ₹1,450
According to Axis, hospitals are expected to develop gradually, driving incremental occupancy and revenue growth.
The focus remains on scaling oncology and international patient business while maintaining strong return ratios, according to the brokerage firm.
Hero MotoCorp | Target price: ₹6,245
“Government initiatives to enhance rural income, higher disposable income and the wedding season are expected to drive two-wheeler industry growth, benefiting Hero, particularly in the entry and 125cc segments. Consequently, we estimate a 13-14 per cent CAGR in EBITDA over FY26-28E,” said Axis.
Prestige Estates Projects | Target price: ₹2,000
Axis highlighted that Q2 launches may contribute nearly ₹12,000 crore in GDV, and management remains confident of sustaining the sales momentum.
“The annuity portfolio is also expected to scale up meaningfully, with exit rentals projected to reach nearly ₹4,900 crore by FY30,” said the brokerage firm.
APL Apollo Tubes | Target price: ₹2,100
“With the growth drivers intact, we believe APL Apollo tubes are well-positioned to capture India’s infrastructure growth. We project EBITDA CAGR of 29 per cent over FY25-27E. The stock is trading at a 12-month forward P/E of 38 times,” said Axis.
Mahanagar Gas | Target price: ₹1,540
Axis forecasts cash flows for 15 years and then uses a terminal growth rate of 3 per cent to arrive at the terminal value.
The brokerage firm estimates a robust CAGR of 9.5 per cent and 8 per cent in EBITDA and PAT, respectively, over FY25–28E, driven by a 9.4 per cent volume CAGR over the same period.
Inox Wind | Target price: ₹190
“We assign a target P/E multiple of 30 times to our FY27 EPS estimate. After adjusting for the minority stake in Inox Green Energy Services and Resco Global (nearly 7 per cent), we arrive at a target price of ₹190,” said Axis.
Kirloskar Brothers | Target price: ₹2,330
Axis said Kirloskar Brothers remains on track to achieve double-digit revenue growth in the medium term with sustained demand from key end markets and a robust order book.
“The current order book provides strong revenue visibility, with the execution cycle ranging from a few weeks to as much as 18 months. Order intake is also expected to remain strong. Additionally, the focus on cost optimisation and an improved product mix should support continued margin expansion,” said Axis.
Sansera Engineering | Target price: ₹1,720
Due to a higher sales mix in non-auto ICE components, increased premiumisation trend, a focused approach on improving margin trends, strong ability to generate operating cash flows, and capacity expansion plans, Axis expects revenue, EBITDA, and PAT to grow at a CAGR of 10 per cent, 12 per cent, and 18 per cent, respectively, over FY26E-28E.
Kalpataru Projects International | Target price: ₹1,475
“The company is well-placed to capitalise on its strong order book, favourable sectoral trends in domestic and international T&D and B&F segments, improved performance of international subsidiaries, supportive government initiatives, and anticipated margin gains,” said Axis Securities.
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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
