The Nifty Infrastructure Index has outperformed the broader market by a wide margin, delivering 82.8% returns in the last three years, more than double the Nifty 50’s 41.5% gain during the same period. The strong momentum reflects rising investor confidence in India’s capital-expenditure cycle, accelerating policy reforms and robust public-private investments across roads, power, logistics and utilities.
Over the past one year, Nifty Infra has risen 14%, compared with an 8% gain in the Nifty 50. On a five-year basis, the divergence is even sharper — the infra index has surged 182%, while the Nifty has climbed 100%. The data highlights how infrastructure has evolved into one of the market’s most rewarding long-duration themes.
India’s infrastructure story is at a critical turning point in 2025. Government capital expenditure has climbed to ₹11.21 lakh crore, equivalent to 3.1% of GDP, supported by the National Infrastructure Pipeline, Gati Shakti, and faster approvals for mega projects. Alongside this, private sector participation via Infrastructure Investment Trusts (InvITs) continues to scale.
The domestic infrastructure market, valued at ₹16.87 lakh crore in 2025, is projected to expand to ₹24.82 lakh crore by 2030, implying a steady 8% CAGR. This expansion is expected to create opportunities across construction, engineering, power equipment, logistics and transport, while boosting broader economic multipliers such as employment and consumption.
Fundamentals: “India Entering a Multi-Year Infra Super-Cycle”
Investment managers on smallcase said infrastructure equities have evolved from a defensive play into a high-beta, high-alpha sector between 2023 and 2025. They believe the market is entering a structural expansion phase.
Managers said the sector is being fuelled by both public and private investment. Government spending remains the backbone, while private capex revival — driven by PLI schemes, global supply-chain diversification and domestic manufacturing incentives — is adding momentum. They expect earnings visibility across engineering, industrials, construction, cement, power equipment and logistics to remain strong.
Abhishek Banerjee, Investment Manager at smallcase and Founder of LotusDew, said “Infrastructure investment in India is expected to grow substantially, with InvITs likely to manage close to ₹25 lakh crore in assets by 2030.” He added that these platforms offer 10–12% pre-tax yields and lower volatility than equities. Banerjee noted that “with a correlation of only 0.42 to equities, infrastructure platforms behave similarly to utilities, providing consistent, inflation-linked income.”
Looking ahead, smallcase managers project that between FY26 and FY30, infra-linked sectors will benefit from strong order books, stable cash flows and robust execution, presenting a compelling long-term thematic opportunity for investors.
Pankaj Singh, Investment Manager on smallcase and Founder of SmartWealth.ai, said “India’s infrastructure ecosystem is at a historic inflection point powered by record government capex, a decisive revival in private investment and forward-looking reforms.” He added that “infrastructure has clearly shifted from a cyclical theme to a structural growth engine aligned with India’s ambition of becoming a top-three global economy by 2047.”
Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, believes the Nifty Infra Index is well-positioned for further gains. He said the index has taken support near the 20-day SMA and is staging a “recovery move” that could continue. He highlighted the formation of a cup-and-handle pattern, which suggests an extended up-move with an initial upside potential of around 3% from current levels. However, he cautioned that key supports lie 2% below, near 9,584, the 20-day SMA.
Meanwhile, Kkunal V. Parar, Vice-President of Technical Research & Algo at Choice Broking, also remains bullish. He noted that the index is trading above its 50-day moving average, forming a Higher-Top Higher-Bottom structure on the daily chart. On the weekly chart, Nifty Infra has given a breakout above the neckline of its cup-and-handle pattern, pointing to sustained bullish momentum.
He said the daily RSI staying above 50 indicates strong sentiment and healthy breadth. Based on the current setup, Parar expects an upside toward the 9,930–10,300 range, with support placed near 9,380.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
