SBI share price: Shares of State Bank of India (SBI), India’s largest lender, are trending closer to their all-time high level of ₹912 touched in July 2024. The stock needs to gain around 6% to reclaim the coveted mark, but concerns around the banking sector and volatility in the Indian stock market have kept SBI shares rangebound.
The stock has risen 9% in a year, while year-to-date gains stand at 8%. Despite the marginal gains, SBI stock has beaten the Nifty Bank index (up 8% YTD and 6% in a year).
A major factor behind the tepid rise is the earnings slowdown in the banking sector amid margin pressure and slower loan growth.
Earnings Turnaround Ahead
“Sector earnings have slipped into the declining territory, owing to margin pressure from high funding costs and slower loan growth. Banks are grappling with the transmission of rate cuts, while asset quality stress in unsecured segments like MSME and CV continues to weigh on near-term profitability,” said Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOSL) in a latest report on the sector.
Despite these headwinds, signs of stabilisation are emerging. MOSL analysts believe that deposit repricing is underway, and the phased CRR cut is expected to ease liquidity constraints.
While SBI posted a 12% increase in its Q1 PAT to ₹19,160.44 crore, helped by higher other income. While net Interest Income (NII) remained flat at ₹41,072.4 and asset quality was stable, the lender saw fresh slippages rise to ₹7,945 crore from ₹4,222 crore on a QoQ basis.
Margins, meanwhile, declined by 33 bps to 3.02% in the June quarter from 3.15% in the March quarter.
Against this backdrop, SBI has seen an earnings cut of 11%. However, according to MOSL, a turnaround appears within reach, as 3QFY26 is likely to mark the end of the current earnings deceleration cycle with earnings growth compared to a decline in 1Q and 2Q.
Even as NII for banks, including SBI, has moderated, reflecting the full impact of upward deposit repricing and the subsequent transmission of a reduction in repo rates, treasury gains have emerged as a key offsetting lever – driven by the rally in G-sec bonds after a sharp reduction in repo rates/G-sec yields.
Public sector banks have overall reported a 14% QoQ increase in treasury gains of ₹13230 crore vs ₹11590 crore in Q4.
What can drive SBI stock to all-time high?
Divya Agrawal – Research Analyst & Advisory (Fundamental), Wealth Management, at Motilal Oswal Financial Services said that the brokerage has a positive view on SBI, with multiple catalysts supporting potential up-move in the stock.
Government-led capex and a healthy corporate credit pipeline provide enhanced growth visibility, while margins are expected to recover with improved liquidity from CRR cuts, moderation in deposit cost, and benefits from the recent capital raise, said Agrawal.
SBI today completed the divestment of a 13.18% stake in Yes Bank to Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) for ₹8,889 crore. This transaction is exempt from capital gains tax, providing SBI with a substantial financial boon. In July 2025, SBI raised ₹25,000 crore through a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP), one of the largest capital-raising moves by an Indian bank in recent years.
This infusion strengthens SBI’s capital base, supporting its growth initiatives, opined Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst, Swastika Investmart.
Agarwal further finds valuations for large-cap banks, including SBI, remain reasonable given the earnings outlook. With healthy treasury gains, stable asset quality and strong subsidiaries’ performance, SBI is fundamentally well-positioned to sustain its momentum, she added.
SBI shares: Technical outlook
Technically, too, the setup for SBI shares looks positive, with analysts anticipating a rise to ₹920 and even to 1,000.
Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree, said SBI is developing a 195-day-long cup and handle pattern on daily charts, with the breakout level placed at ~855. Aggressive traders can look to initiate long positions at CMP 833, while a sustained breakout above 855 will open the path to fresh all-time highs and a psychological milestone of 1000+, he opined.
“Volumes and momentum indicators are aligned positively, indicating institutional interest and strong upside potential. Moving averages are trending higher and will act as a propeller to support the momentum. SBI remains one of the strongest setups in the banking pack, with bullish structures intact,” said Jain.
Meanwhile, Gour from Swastika said that SBI stock is trading well above its 200-day SMA ( ₹789), which indicates that the long-term trend remains positive. The rising slope of the moving averages further confirms that the broader structure is intact and healthy, he believes.
“The structure of the counter is in a long period of consolidation as it trades above its all-important moving averages. On the upside, 880 is an immediate resistance area; above this, we can expect a run-up towards the 920 levels in the near term. On the downside, ₹810 is a major support for any correction,” he added.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
