The critical questions every investor needs to ask now

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When President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on Indian goods in April, investors immediately began dumping stocks in the most vulnerable sectors such as jewellery, textiles, seafood and auto parts. By the time the tariffs actually took effect on 27 August, billions of rupees had already been wiped out, and the selloff has only deepened since.

Between 2 April and 1 October, companies in these four sectors have suffered some of the steepest market-cap losses.

In gems and jewellery, Kalyan Jewellers led the decline, shedding 4,790.63 crore, followed by Sky Gold & Diamonds, PC Jeweller, and Rajesh Exports. In textiles, Jindal Worldwide dropped 4,090.62 crore, with Vedant Fashions and Welspun Living also facing steep losses.

Among seafood firms, Avanti Feeds fell 3,385.02 crore, while Coastal Corp. saw a smaller decline. In auto ancillaries, Sona Comstar bore the brunt with a 3,267.01 crore drop, followed by Amara Raja Energy & Mobility, as per a Mint analysis.

Not all of these companies have significant US exposure. The real test lies with firms whose revenues lean heavily on American buyers, such as Pokarna, Avanti Feeds, Steel Strips Wheels, Vaibhav Global, Apex Frozen Foods, and Gokaldas Exports, which earn between 55% and 80% of their revenue from the US, according to data from Capitaline. Even a minor policy shift from Washington could send shockwaves through earnings.

Since April, shares of Gokaldas Exports, Sona Comstar, Avanti Feeds, Ramkrishna Forgings, and Pokarna have slumped 11% to 34%. Some firms bucked the trend: Gabriel India gained 107%, Carysil rose 34%, and Steel Strips Wheels, KPR Mill, Apex Frozen Foods, and LT Foods climbed 5-21%. Meanwhile, the benchmark Nifty 50 index has gained over 6.5% during the same period.

India’s total merchandise exports, excluding petroleum, reached a record $374.1 billion in FY25, up 6% from $352.9 billion a year earlier, according to commerce ministry data. Of this, goods worth $87 billion were shipped to the US in FY25.

Overdependency (Table)

Biggest market cap bleeders (Table)

What investors should do

“There are certain nuances that need to be considered before making any investment decisions on companies with significant US exposure,” said Nirav Karkera, head of research at Fisdom, a wealth-tech company.

Factors such as the exact level of dependence on the US market, the company’s ability to localize operations, the nature of the goods or services it offers, and the pricing power it holds in the US are all key aspects investors should carefully evaluate before deciding to buy, sell, or hold these stocks, he explained.

“It’s highly subjective,” says Souvik Saha, vice president – International Business, Invesco Asset Management (India). For some businesses with little to no competition, the current turbulence may just be a temporary blip, he notes.

While the pain could stretch beyond a couple of quarters, possibly even a year or two, companies that shot to prominence during covid or whose business models are easy to replicate may face lasting damage, even to the point of permanent dislocation, Saha said.

On the other hand, firms operating in niches with limited competition may be seeing only a short-lived dent in market share. According to Saha, this sets up a clear distinction: businesses with permanent damage are likely to face investor sell-offs, whereas resilient companies could actually turn into bargain buys.

Buy, Sell, or Yawn? The Analyst Scorecard (Table)

All said, some market participants believe that while the tariffs are weighing on Indian exporters, steady domestic demand may help soften the impact to some extent.

The report estimates India’s GDP impact could range between –0.1% and –0.5%.

Besides, the recent overhaul of the goods and services tax (GST) regime, with the aim of supporting Indian industries and consumers and boosting domestic demand, could ease the burden on sectors like automobiles, garments, and electronics that are grappling with high US tariffs.

India’s 2025 GST reform has pruned the tax structure to five slabs from six — nil, 3% (on gold and silver), 5%, 18%, and a new 40% demerit rate. The move makes essentials, healthcare, agri-inputs, and consumer goods cheaper, while luxury and sin items get costlier.

Analysts expect cement, autos, consumer discretionary, agri, textiles, hospitality, and chemicals to be among the biggest gainers.

Ashwani Shami, executive vice president and portfolio manager at Omniscience Capital, said, “It is important to let more clarity emerge as the trade negotiations progress and accordingly act.” He added that if some businesses on conservative estimation of intrinsic value appear oversold then this may be a time to start adding.

Pain points under the tariff regime

To understand which firms are most vulnerable, here’s a closer look at company-level exposure and mitigation strategies.

Among gems & jewellery firms, exact US revenue shares are not always disclosed. The gems and jewellery sector contributes about 10-12% of India’s total merchandise exports, accounting for the third largest commodity share, according to the website Indian Trade Portal by Department of Commerce.

According to DSP Mutual Fund’s Netra report of September, 40% of $30 billion India exports in gems and jewellery sector goes to the US.

Kalyan Jewellers operates two stores in America, and according to a 17 July report from Icra Ltd, “Sizeable store expansion in non-South markets along with plans to expand the international business in West Asia and other countries (two stores have been opened in the US in the recent past) are likely to drive further improvement in KJIL’s geographical revenue mix.”

“Our US operations source all jewellery through suppliers and vendors in the UAE, so the recent US tariffs on India have no material impact on our business. In any case, our exposure to the US market is minimal, with only two showrooms, both under a year old,” the company told Mint.

Sky Gold has not disclosed US exposure, while PC Jeweller has no presence in the market. Rajesh Exports, a Bengaluru-based gold importer and jewellery manufacturer, last reported in FY20 that North America contributed 18% of revenue.

Avanti Feeds derives 78% of revenue in Q1FY26 from North America. The 50% US tariff makes it harder for Indian shrimp exporters to compete with Ecuador, Vietnam, and Indonesia. As per government data, in FY25, India exported $7.39 billion in marine products, of which $2.68 billion went to the US.

Avanti Feeds CFO DVS Satyanarayana said during an earnings call that rising raw-material costs and the reciprocal tariff will significantly impact performance, particularly in the second season.

Coastal Corp. Ltd, an exporter of seafood, relies on the US for roughly 85% of its business, followed by China, South Korea, Japan, and others. CareEdge Ratings noted that “this dependency has led to a decline in profitability margins during FY24 and 9MFY25 due to the imposition of countervailing duty by the US government,” though diversification into Russia and Japan is expected to improve margins.

Textile exporters like Jindal Worldwide and Vedant Fashions (owner of Manyavar and Mohey) have a US presence, but exact exposure is unknown.

Welspun Living depends on the US for around 60% of sales. CareEdge expects H1 FY26 to remain resilient due to pre-buying from US retailers, with tariff impact more pronounced in H2FY26. Antique Stock Broking warned that profitability could be wiped out in the near term, with volumes likely to decline in Q2 and Q3 even if trade terms improve in October.

Among high-exposure exporters, Gokaldas Exports currently earns 55% of sales from the US. Systematix Institutional Equities estimates that absorbing 15-18% of the cost while passing the rest to customers would reduce margins to 4-6% on this segment (from a normal 12%). The second-half order book is strong, but margins could remain pressured until tariffs ease.

In auto ancillaries, Sona BLW Precision Forgings derives 34% of Q1FY26 revenue from North America, while Amara Raja Energy & Mobility aims to deepen penetration in Europe and the US.

Several other companies have significant US sales.

Pokarna generated over 80% of revenue from America in FY25, with demand impacted by high interest rates, tariffs, and immigration uncertainty, Crisil reported.

Carysil reported 26.8% US revenue in Q1FY26, including intra-US sales from its subsidiary United Granite LLC; excluding this, direct exposure from India is under 12%. CFO Anand Sharma told Mint that Carysil has offered discounts to absorb short-term impacts while remaining competitive globally.

Steel Strips Wheels and Vaibhav Global rely on 64% (FY25) and 59% (Q1 FY26) of revenue from the US, respectively. Steel Strips Wheels is pursuing a de-risking strategy focused on Europe and South America.

Vaibhav Global has maintained steady gross margins of 66% in Q1FY26 by passing on tariffs to customers and leveraging its vertically integrated global sourcing network. CFO Nitin Panwad explained that the company shipped advance inventory to the US in March and July, and shifted casting processes to the US to remain cost-competitive and resilient against reciprocal tariffs.

The company is also exploring additional supply-chain efficiency measures.

Mint reached out to all companies in the analysis; Kalyan Jewellers, Vaibhav Global, and Carysil were the only ones to respond.



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