Three months after Modi and Putin displayed their bonhomie in Tianjin, the calculus has shifted.
New Delhi: Three months ago, the public bonhomie between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Tianjin had raised hackles in Western capitals. Next week, there will be another round of photos of embraces and handholding, but India now finds itself in a more complicated place with Moscow.
Both governments formally announced Putin’s December 4-5 state visit on Friday.
The Ministry of External Affairs said Putin will travel to India for the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit at Modi’s invitation, calling the trip an opportunity for the two leaders to “review progress in bilateral relations, set the vision for strengthening the ‘Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership’ and exchange views on regional and global issues of mutual interest”.
The Kremlin used similar expansive language, describing the visit as being “of great importance” and stressing that it would allow the two sides to go over the “entire extensive scope” of the partnership across politics, trade, the economy, science and technology, and the cultural and humanitarian spheres, along with “current international and regional issues”.
After the talks, Moscow said a joint statement is expected, along with a “wide range” of bilateral inter-departmental and business agreements.
The diplomatic choreography will inevitably be reminiscent of the September images from Tianjin – Modi and Putin walking hand-in-hand through the summit hall, their hour-long conversation inside Putin’s Aurus limousine and their brief three-way huddle with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
That display came at a moment when New Delhi was reeling from American tariffs – including a punitive levy for buying Russian crude – and wanted to signal it still had options, as much to external powers as to audiences back home.
After the Ukraine war began, India became the second-largest buyer of discounted Russian oil, with Moscow’s share of India’s crude imports surging from just 2% before the war to about 40%.
A key aide of US President Donald Trump had characterised India as a “laundromat” for Moscow – a charge that particularly stung in New Delhi given that China, the largest buyer of Russian oil, had largely escaped such censure.
The optics drew immediate blowback. Hours after the meeting, Trump wrote on Truth Social that “India buys most of its oil and military products from Russia, very little from the US,” and called trade with India a “totally one-sided disaster”.
Three months on, the calculus has shifted. India is in the final stages of negotiating a trade deal with the US to bring down tariffs. New Delhi also needs to finalise a free trade agreement with the European Union – especially crucial since the EU leadership is the front-runner to be guest of honour at India’s Republic Day parade in January.
That timeline means the enthusiasm India displays for Putin’s visit may be carefully calibrated. European leaders are unlikely to be impressed by a grand show of affection, particularly around defence cooperation – an area where India remains heavily dependent on Russian equipment.
Speaking at an event on Friday, Indian defence secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh walked that tightrope. “They [the Russians] have been our friends through both fair and foul weather, and we are not going to stop our defence cooperation with them anytime soon,” he said. “But I do want to stress that India follows a policy of strategic autonomy.”
Singh said defence cooperation will be a major focus of Putin’s visit, with India seeking “clear answers” on delivery delays of the S-400 air defence systems and other contracts, including the Sukhoi upgradation program. While ordering additional S-400 systems has “not been ruled out”, he cautioned against expecting any announcements during the visit.
Russia has promised to deliver the remaining S-400 batteries in the coming financial year, he added.
Underscoring the complexity of the situation, Putin’s visit comes at a moment when India’s purchases of Russian crude are poised to drop sharply – potentially to their lowest levels in at least three years.
India is likely to receive only 600,000 to 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil in December, according to refining sources cited by Reuters. That would be dramatically down from 1.87 million bpd this month calculated by ship tracking firm Kpler.
The November spike reflected refiners rushing to secure discounted barrels ahead of the US sanctions deadline of November 21, which targeted Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil.
The pullback is being driven by heightened bank scrutiny and caution among Indian refiners following the sanctions. Most Indian refiners, including Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd, Hindustan Petroleum Corp and HPCL-Mittal Energy, have stopped buying Russian oil entirely. State-run Indian Oil Corp and Bharat Petroleum have said they will only purchase from non-sanctioned Russian entities.
Kpler notes that Indian imports of Russian crude averaged 1.6 million bpd in October and 1.89 million bpd in November, with this month’s increase reflecting “refiners’ efforts to secure economical barrels ahead of the sanctions cutoff”.
The firm expects these volumes “could decline sharply in December and January”.
This article went live on November twenty-ninth, two thousand twenty five, at forty-five minutes past three at night.
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