With key benchmark indices of the Indian stock market — the Nifty 50, Sensex, and Bank Nifty — breaking into fresh all-time highs, the market is now centred around one critical question: Can the momentum sustain, and what levels should investors track next? In an interview with Pranati Deva of LiveMint, Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, noted that Nifty’s breakout above 26,277 and Sensex’s move past 86,050 reflect strong buying strength, but the gains remain concentrated in large caps, while mid and small-caps continue to lag. He outlines the key support zones that will determine whether the rally holds, sets precise Nifty and Sensex targets for December 2025 and March 2026. Edited Excerpts
Indian equities hit a fresh all-time high. What are key support levels to watch?
Ans: Indian equities have already hit new all-time highs. Nifty has broken above 26,277 and Sensex above 86,050 with strong buying momentum, and support levels are holding well. However, the rally is mostly in largecap stocks, while mid- and small-caps lag. Global market volatility and currency swings could cause short-term pullbacks. Watch key support around 26,000–25,800 and Sensex 85,000–84,500. Keep an eye on momentum above 26,300–26,400 in Nifty and 86,500–86,700 in Sensex, and focus on strong, well-performing stocks for accumulation. Overall, gradual gains look likely if current trends continue.
What are your Nifty and Sensex targets for December 2025 and March 2026?
Ans: Nifty may trade around 26,500–27,000 by December 2025 and could rise to 27,000–28,000 by March 2026. Sensex is likely to be around 88,000–90,000 in December and 90,000–92,000 by March. Charts show positive momentum, and key support levels are holding—support around 25,800–25,500 and Sensex 85,000–84,500—which could act as a base for further gains. If the economy stays stable, with steady interest rates and good corporate earnings, the indices may move higher. But if support levels break, there could be downside risk, so it’s important to watch the markets closely.
What factors or triggers could lead the Nifty to a new high this year?
Ans: Several factors could help Nifty sustain new highs this year. Strong support levels and steady buying suggest a solid base for further gains. If Nifty breaks key resistance levels with higher trading volumes, it would confirm a bullish trend. Positive movements in sectors like IT, banking, and FMCG, along with improving earnings, stable interest rates, and foreign fund inflows, can add momentum. Small dips near support levels may provide good buying opportunities. Watching indicators like moving averages, RSI, and trend lines will help track the strength of the trend.
Largecaps vs Midcaps: Where do you see the stronger risk-adjusted returns over the next 12–18 months?
Ans: Largecaps look stronger with clear uptrends, suggesting lower risk and steadier returns over the next 12–18 months. Midcaps can give bigger gains but are more volatile in nature. A smart approach is to keep most money in largecaps for safety, and invest a smaller amount in strong midcaps to capture extra growth while limiting risk.
Is the outperformance in PSU stocks nearing exhaustion, or is there more room to run?
Ans: PSU stocks have experienced a strong rally over the past year, with many counters hitting overbought levels and extended moving averages. Volume trends indicate momentum is concentrated in select PSU stocks, while broader indices show signs of consolidation. Chart patterns suggest that while some individual PSUs may continue higher on breakouts, they may carry the risk of pullbacks. The way forward is to adopt a selective approach, focus on buying on dips, and avoid overextended PSUs.
With IT valuations reverting to pre-Covid levels, does the long-term investment case strengthen from here?
Ans: From a technical analyst’s view, IT stocks falling back to pre-Covid levels may be entering a stable phase, which could make long-term investing less risky. Important support levels should be watched—if prices stay above them, it may show buying interest and form a base for a possible long-term uptrend. Indicators like moving averages suggest selling pressure might be easing, but trading volume will be important to confirm any trend change. If support holds and the market remains steady, carefully buying strong IT companies now could offer good long-term returns with manageable risk.
Can we expect foreign portfolio investors to return meaningfully in December? What would trigger a reversal in flows?
Ans: Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) may start coming back in December if market conditions are favourable. If Nifty and Sensex hold their key support levels, it could boost investor confidence and attract FPI inflows. Factors that could trigger a return include stable or improving global liquidity, lower interest rate worries, and strong corporate earnings in India. A steady or stronger rupee would also make investing less risky for foreign investors. Additionally, attractive stock valuations following recent dips and positive moves in sectors such as IT, banking, and FMCG could encourage buying. Watching trading volumes and trend lines will help confirm if FPIs are truly returning.
What are your key expectations from the upcoming Budget, and what could be its market impact?
Ans: Expectations from the Budget include measures that help the economy grow, such as more government spending, incentives for industries, and support for consumer demand. Tax relief, particularly for middle-income households, could boost corporate earnings and enhance consumer confidence, which would be beneficial for the stock market. Maintaining a controlled fiscal deficit while investing in growth can support both bonds and stocks. Clear reforms or policy announcements could further improve market sentiment. If the Budget meets these expectations, it may lead to increased market buying, push indices higher, and boost overall investor confidence.
What major challenges do you foresee for equity markets in 2026?
Ans: The main challenges for equity markets in 2026 could be higher volatility due to ongoing inflation and possible interest rate hikes by central banks. Geopolitical issues and supply chain disruptions may increase uncertainty, leading to sharp shifts between sectors. Technical signals may produce more false breakouts, making it more challenging to identify genuine trends. Market gains may be driven by fewer sectors, which raises overall risk. High-speed trading can intensify short-term swings. Investors should remain disciplined, manage risk carefully, confirm trends before taking action, and adjust their positions dynamically to navigate market fluctuations.
What is the one piece of advice you would give to new or first-time investors entering the market now?
Ans: My advice to new investors entering the market is to focus on discipline and managing risk instead of trying to make quick profits. Learn to read market trends using charts and technical indicators, not just news or tips. Identify clear points to buy and sell, and avoid reacting emotionally to short-term market moves. Spread your investments across different sectors to reduce risk, and manage the size of each position to protect your money. Be patient, let trends develop, and always use stop-losses. Sticking to a clear plan consistently is the key to long-term success.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
