USD vs INR: With no apparent progress on the India–US trade deal, the Indian National Rupee (INR) has been falling continuously and has touched around 90 per US dollar (USD) levels. As experts predict further weakness in the Indian Rupee, export-oriented segments and companies are expected to benefit. Hence, buying stocks of IT, metal, and pharma companies that have exposure in global markets can be a good option. However, it would be highly tricky to choose value picks from these segments, as both the US and India are highly ambitious about inking the India-US trade deal and the rising probability of a US Fed rate cut in the FOMC meeting next month.
INR vs USD: Which stock to buy before the India-US trade deal?
Speaking on the segments that should be preferred in the current currency market scenario, Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart, said, “Amid the Indian Rupee hitting fresh lows against the USD, we see a tactical buying opportunity in export-oriented themes like IT, Pharma, and Metals. While the currency depreciation offers an immediate margin cushion, the primary investment thesis is driven by the global macro pivot.”
US Fed rate cut buzz
Pointing towards the rising bets on the US Fed rate cut, Santosh Meena of Swastika Investmart said, “With a high probability of the US Federal Reserve cutting rates in December 2025, we anticipate a revival in discretionary tech spending (aiding IT) and a softening of the US Dollar Index (aiding global Metal prices). Furthermore, valuations in these pockets remain attractive compared to the broader index. Investors can use this consolidation phase to accumulate quality stocks in these sectors, keeping a close watch on the US Fed’s commentary.”
On suggestion for wealth creation instead of mere logging profits in falling Indian rupee against the US dollar, Sachin Jasuja, Head of Equities and Founding Partner at Centricity WealthTech, said, “INR has slid to around 89–90 per USD in late 2025, making exports more competitive and lifting rupee earnings when translated from dollars. Export-heavy, dollar-billing businesses with large rupee costs benefit the most; sectors with high imported inputs or pricing pressure see only partial or no benefit. Buying IT and some pharma exporters can make sense during rupee weakness, but treating IT, metal, pharma as a blanket buy just because INR is falling is risky.”
Should you buy pharma stocks?
Batting in favour of pharma stocks, Sachin Jasuja said, “Pharma exports do gain from a weaker rupee, but many companies import APIs and other inputs in dollars, so a part of the benefit gets offset by higher raw-material costs. Experts also flag that buyers often push for price cuts when the supplier’s currency weakens, again capping the benefit.” He said that it is selectively positive for export-heavy players with lower import dependence; not a uniform “buy pharma because INR fell” trade.
Should you buy metal stocks?
“Many Indian metal players are linked to global commodity cycles; rupee depreciation may support export realisations, but higher dollar-linked energy and raw-material costs can offset this. If the global metal cycle is weak or prices are falling, rupee support alone will not be sufficient to save earnings. Domestic, rupee-revenue metal names gain little from FX anyway,” Sachin Jasuja said, adding, “Metal stocks are more of a global-cycle and China/US demand play than a pure rupee trade; INR weakness is, at best, a secondary factor.”
Wealth creation tips
Unveiling the investment strategy amid falling Indian Rupee and the US Fed rate cut buzz, Sachin Jasuja said, “Use rupee weakness as a tilt, not the core thesis: overweight higher-quality IT and select export-oriented pharma where valuations and demand already look reasonable; be more cautious on metals unless the global cycle turns up. The growth in sales, PAT, and management guidance remains the key verticals to look for, before considering the depreciation/appreciation of the currency, since the core business does not entirely revolve around the currency. The focus should remain on proportion of USD revenues, import content, hedge policies, pricing power, and current valuation vs. historical bands before adding in size.”
Key Takeaways
- Investors should focus on higher-quality IT and selective pharma stocks amidst rupee depreciation.
- Rupee weakness impacts export-heavy companies differently based on their import dependencies.
- Global commodity cycles play a significant role in the performance of metal stocks; currency fluctuations are secondary.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
